Hugo Boss Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

BOSS Stock  EUR 53.68  0.06  0.11%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Hugo Boss AG on the next trading day is expected to be 54.86 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.54  and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.08. Hugo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Hugo Boss stock prices and determine the direction of Hugo Boss AG's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Hugo Boss' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hugo Boss to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Hugo Boss cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Hugo Boss' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Hugo Boss' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Hugo Boss AG is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Hugo Boss 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Hugo Boss AG on the next trading day is expected to be 53.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.49, mean absolute percentage error of 4.74, and the sum of the absolute errors of 85.01.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hugo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hugo Boss' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hugo Boss Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Hugo BossHugo Boss Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Hugo Boss Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hugo Boss' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hugo Boss' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 50.91 and 55.50, respectively. We have considered Hugo Boss' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
53.68
53.20
Expected Value
55.50
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hugo Boss stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hugo Boss stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.3141
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.4749
MADMean absolute deviation1.4914
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0256
SAESum of the absolute errors85.01
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Hugo Boss. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Hugo Boss AG and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Hugo Boss

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hugo Boss AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hugo Boss' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
51.3953.6855.97
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
45.1547.4459.05
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
53.6053.6653.72
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hugo Boss. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hugo Boss' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hugo Boss' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Hugo Boss AG.

Other Forecasting Options for Hugo Boss

For every potential investor in Hugo, whether a beginner or expert, Hugo Boss' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hugo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hugo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hugo Boss' price trends.

Hugo Boss Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hugo Boss stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hugo Boss could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hugo Boss by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hugo Boss AG Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hugo Boss' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hugo Boss' current price.

Hugo Boss Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hugo Boss stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hugo Boss shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hugo Boss stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hugo Boss AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Hugo Boss Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hugo Boss' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hugo Boss' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hugo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Hugo Boss in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Hugo Boss' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Hugo Boss options trading.

Pair Trading with Hugo Boss

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Hugo Boss position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Hugo Boss will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Hugo Stock

  0.63FHL Federal Home LoanPairCorr
  0.54DBPE Xtrackers - LevDAXPairCorr
  0.5MSF MicrosoftPairCorr
  0.49MSF MicrosoftPairCorr
  0.49MSF MicrosoftPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Hugo Boss could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Hugo Boss when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Hugo Boss - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Hugo Boss AG to buy it.
The correlation of Hugo Boss is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Hugo Boss moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Hugo Boss AG moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Hugo Boss can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hugo Boss to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

Complementary Tools for Hugo Stock analysis

When running Hugo Boss' price analysis, check to measure Hugo Boss' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hugo Boss is operating at the current time. Most of Hugo Boss' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hugo Boss' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hugo Boss' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hugo Boss to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Stock Screener
Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook.
Idea Analyzer
Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum
Premium Stories
Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope
Price Ceiling Movement
Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Cryptocurrency Center
Build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency
Risk-Return Analysis
View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hugo Boss' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hugo Boss is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hugo Boss' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.