MFS Blended Naive Prediction

BRLRX -- USA Fund  

USD 12.20  0.09  0.74%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast MFS Blended historic prices and determine the direction of MFS Blended Research Global Equ future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of MFS Blended historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check also Historical Fundamental Analysis of MFS Blended to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A naive forecasting model for MFS Blended is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of MFS Blended Research Global Equ value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of MFS Blended Research Global Equ on the next trading day is expected to be 12.027419

MFS Blended Research Prediction Pattern

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MFS Blended Forecasted Value

November 17, 2019
12.20
Market Value
12.03
Expected Value
14.04
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria113.3387
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0739
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0064
SAESum of the absolute errors4.5055
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of MFS Blended Research Global Equ. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

MFS Blended Risk Indicators

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