Borussia Dortmund Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

BVB Stock  EUR 3.35  0.01  0.30%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Borussia Dortmund GmbH on the next trading day is expected to be 3.35 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.04  and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.55. Borussia Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Borussia Dortmund stock prices and determine the direction of Borussia Dortmund GmbH's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Borussia Dortmund's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Borussia Dortmund to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Borussia Dortmund cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Borussia Dortmund's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Borussia Dortmund's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Borussia Dortmund simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Borussia Dortmund GmbH are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Borussia Dortmund GmbH prices get older.

Borussia Dortmund Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Borussia Dortmund GmbH on the next trading day is expected to be 3.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.55.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Borussia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Borussia Dortmund's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Borussia Dortmund Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Borussia Dortmund Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Borussia Dortmund's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Borussia Dortmund's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.52 and 5.19, respectively. We have considered Borussia Dortmund's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.35
3.35
Expected Value
5.19
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Borussia Dortmund stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Borussia Dortmund stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.8149
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0065
MADMean absolute deviation0.0425
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0119
SAESum of the absolute errors2.5525
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Borussia Dortmund GmbH forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Borussia Dortmund observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Borussia Dortmund

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Borussia Dortmund GmbH. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Borussia Dortmund's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1.523.355.18
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1.082.914.74
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Borussia Dortmund. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Borussia Dortmund's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Borussia Dortmund's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Borussia Dortmund GmbH.

Other Forecasting Options for Borussia Dortmund

For every potential investor in Borussia, whether a beginner or expert, Borussia Dortmund's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Borussia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Borussia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Borussia Dortmund's price trends.

Borussia Dortmund Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Borussia Dortmund stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Borussia Dortmund could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Borussia Dortmund by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Borussia Dortmund GmbH Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Borussia Dortmund's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Borussia Dortmund's current price.

Borussia Dortmund Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Borussia Dortmund stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Borussia Dortmund shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Borussia Dortmund stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Borussia Dortmund GmbH entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Borussia Dortmund Risk Indicators

The analysis of Borussia Dortmund's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Borussia Dortmund's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting borussia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Borussia Dortmund in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Borussia Dortmund's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Borussia Dortmund options trading.

Pair Trading with Borussia Dortmund

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Borussia Dortmund position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Borussia Dortmund will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Borussia Stock

  0.79APC Apple IncPairCorr
  0.77APC Apple IncPairCorr
  0.76APC Apple IncPairCorr
  0.77APC Apple IncPairCorr

Moving against Borussia Stock

  0.73DBPE Xtrackers - LevDAXPairCorr
  0.69OIXA Orix Corp AdsPairCorr
  0.68OIX ORIXPairCorr
  0.66SID State BankPairCorr
  0.61W8V Bank Of ChinaPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Borussia Dortmund could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Borussia Dortmund when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Borussia Dortmund - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Borussia Dortmund GmbH to buy it.
The correlation of Borussia Dortmund is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Borussia Dortmund moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Borussia Dortmund GmbH moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Borussia Dortmund can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Borussia Dortmund to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Borussia Dortmund GmbH information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Borussia Dortmund's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

Complementary Tools for Borussia Stock analysis

When running Borussia Dortmund's price analysis, check to measure Borussia Dortmund's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Borussia Dortmund is operating at the current time. Most of Borussia Dortmund's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Borussia Dortmund's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Borussia Dortmund's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Borussia Dortmund to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Volatility Analysis
Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data
Portfolio Backtesting
Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios
Price Transformation
Use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm
My Watchlist Analysis
Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like
Commodity Channel
Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum
Portfolio Dashboard
Portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments
Money Managers
Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world
Alpha Finder
Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk
Bond Analysis
Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios.
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
AI Investment Finder
Use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities
Portfolio Volatility
Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk
Please note, there is a significant difference between Borussia Dortmund's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Borussia Dortmund is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Borussia Dortmund's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.