Citigroup Naive Prediction

C -- USA Stock  

Earnings Call 

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Citigroup historic prices and determine the direction of Citigroup future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Citigroup historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Citigroup systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Citigroup fundamentals over time. Check also Historical Fundamental Analysis of Citigroup to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A naive forecasting model for Citigroup is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Citigroup value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Citigroup on the next trading day is expected to be 77.728294

Citigroup Prediction Pattern

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Citigroup Forecasted Value

Market Value
76.39
December 15, 2019
77.73
Expected Value
81.58
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria117.7938
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.7159
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.01
SAESum of the absolute errors43.6679
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Citigroup. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

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Citigroup Risk Indicators

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