Citigroup Triple Exponential Smoothing

C -- USA Stock  

Earnings Call : Today

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Citigroup historic prices and determine the direction of Citigroup future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Citigroup historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Citigroup systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Citigroup fundamentals over time. Check also Historical Fundamental Analysis of Citigroup to cross-verify your projections.
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Triple exponential smoothing for Citigroup - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Citigroup prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Citigroup price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Citigroup.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Citigroup on the next trading day is expected to be 70.29

Citigroup Prediction Pattern

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Citigroup Forecasted Value

October 15, 2019
70.10
Market Value
70.29
Expected Value
75.83
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.198
MADMean absolute deviation0.978
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0147
SAESum of the absolute errors58.68
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Citigroup observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Citigroup observations.

Volatility Measures

Citigroup Risk Indicators

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