Amcap Fund Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

CAFFX Fund  USD 40.38  0.06  0.15%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amcap Fund Class on the next trading day is expected to be 39.56 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.30  and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.32. Amcap Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Amcap Fund stock prices and determine the direction of Amcap Fund Class's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Amcap Fund's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amcap Fund to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Amcap Fund cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Amcap Fund's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Amcap Fund's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Amcap Fund is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Amcap Fund Class value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Amcap Fund Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of April

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amcap Fund Class on the next trading day is expected to be 39.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.32.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amcap Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amcap Fund's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Amcap Fund Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Amcap FundAmcap Fund Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Amcap Fund Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Amcap Fund's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amcap Fund's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 38.63 and 40.49, respectively. We have considered Amcap Fund's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
40.38
39.56
Expected Value
40.49
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amcap Fund mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amcap Fund mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.0777
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3004
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0074
SAESum of the absolute errors18.3241
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Amcap Fund Class. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Amcap Fund. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Amcap Fund

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amcap Fund Class. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amcap Fund's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
39.5140.4441.37
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
39.4940.4241.35
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
39.5641.2642.97
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Amcap Fund. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Amcap Fund's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Amcap Fund's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Amcap Fund Class.

Other Forecasting Options for Amcap Fund

For every potential investor in Amcap, whether a beginner or expert, Amcap Fund's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amcap Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amcap. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amcap Fund's price trends.

Amcap Fund Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amcap Fund mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amcap Fund could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amcap Fund by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Amcap Fund Class Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Amcap Fund's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Amcap Fund's current price.

Amcap Fund Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amcap Fund mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amcap Fund shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amcap Fund mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Amcap Fund Class entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Amcap Fund Risk Indicators

The analysis of Amcap Fund's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amcap Fund's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amcap mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Amcap Fund in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Amcap Fund's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Amcap Fund options trading.

Pair Trading with Amcap Fund

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Amcap Fund position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Amcap Fund will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Amcap Mutual Fund

  0.99FAFGX American FundsPairCorr
  0.99GFACX Growth FundPairCorr
  0.99GFAFX Growth FundPairCorr
  0.99CGFEX Growth FundPairCorr
  0.99CGFFX Growth FundPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Amcap Fund could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Amcap Fund when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Amcap Fund - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Amcap Fund Class to buy it.
The correlation of Amcap Fund is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Amcap Fund moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Amcap Fund Class moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Amcap Fund can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amcap Fund to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Amcap Fund Class information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Amcap Fund's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the AI Investment Finder module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amcap Fund's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Amcap Fund is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amcap Fund's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.