Computer Direct Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

CMDR Stock  ILS 26,960  860.00  3.09%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Computer Direct on the next trading day is expected to be 29,077 with a mean absolute deviation of  962.01  and the sum of the absolute errors of 58,683. Computer Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Computer Direct stock prices and determine the direction of Computer Direct's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Computer Direct's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Computer Direct to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Computer Direct cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Computer Direct's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Computer Direct's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Computer Direct price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Computer Direct Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of April

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Computer Direct on the next trading day is expected to be 29,077 with a mean absolute deviation of 962.01, mean absolute percentage error of 1,705,613, and the sum of the absolute errors of 58,683.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Computer Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Computer Direct's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Computer Direct Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Computer DirectComputer Direct Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Computer Direct Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Computer Direct's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Computer Direct's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29,074 and 29,079, respectively. We have considered Computer Direct's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
26,960
29,074
Downside
29,077
Expected Value
29,079
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Computer Direct stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Computer Direct stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria132.4599
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation962.0084
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0358
SAESum of the absolute errors58682.5145
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Computer Direct historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Computer Direct

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Computer Direct. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Computer Direct's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
26,95826,96026,962
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
22,89222,89429,656
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Computer Direct. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Computer Direct's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Computer Direct's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Computer Direct.

Other Forecasting Options for Computer Direct

For every potential investor in Computer, whether a beginner or expert, Computer Direct's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Computer Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Computer. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Computer Direct's price trends.

Computer Direct Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Computer Direct stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Computer Direct could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Computer Direct by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Computer Direct Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Computer Direct's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Computer Direct's current price.

Computer Direct Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Computer Direct stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Computer Direct shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Computer Direct stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Computer Direct entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Computer Direct Risk Indicators

The analysis of Computer Direct's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Computer Direct's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting computer stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Computer Direct in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Computer Direct's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Computer Direct options trading.

Pair Trading with Computer Direct

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Computer Direct position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Computer Direct will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Computer Stock

  0.84DCI Direct Capital InvesPairCorr
  0.62APLY Aerodrome GroupPairCorr
  0.84SAFE Safe T GroupPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Computer Direct could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Computer Direct when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Computer Direct - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Computer Direct to buy it.
The correlation of Computer Direct is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Computer Direct moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Computer Direct moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Computer Direct can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Computer Direct to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.

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When running Computer Direct's price analysis, check to measure Computer Direct's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Computer Direct is operating at the current time. Most of Computer Direct's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Computer Direct's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Computer Direct's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Computer Direct to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Computer Direct's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Computer Direct is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Computer Direct's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.