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American Funds Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

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CPGAX -- USA Fund  

USD 18.01  0.12  0.66%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast American Funds historic stock prices and determine the direction of American Funds Global Growth Po future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of American Funds historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Funds to cross-verify your projections.
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A naive forecasting model for American Funds is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of American Funds Global Growth Po value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of American Funds Global Growth Po on the next trading day is expected to be 18.060365

American Funds Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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American Funds Forecasted Value

Market Value
18.01
February 19, 2020
18.06
Expected Value
20.65
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria114.9612
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1718
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0096
SAESum of the absolute errors10.4801
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of American Funds Global Growth Po. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

American Funds Risk Indicators