Country Garden Pink Sheet Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

CTRYF Stock  USD 0.07  0.00  0.00%   
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Country Garden Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 0.07 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.01  and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.29. Country Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Country Garden stock prices and determine the direction of Country Garden Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Country Garden's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Country Garden to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Country Garden cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Country Garden's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Country Garden's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Country Garden is based on an artificially constructed time series of Country Garden daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Country Garden 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Country Garden Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 0.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.000052, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.29.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Country Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Country Garden's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Country Garden Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Country GardenCountry Garden Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Country Garden Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Country Garden's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Country Garden's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0007 and 7.04, respectively. We have considered Country Garden's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.07
0.0007
Downside
0.07
Expected Value
7.04
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Country Garden pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Country Garden pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria95.3893
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0019
MADMean absolute deviation0.0054
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0669
SAESum of the absolute errors0.2925
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Country Garden Holdings 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Country Garden

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Country Garden Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Country Garden's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.077.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.077.04
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Country Garden. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Country Garden's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Country Garden's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Country Garden Holdings.

Other Forecasting Options for Country Garden

For every potential investor in Country, whether a beginner or expert, Country Garden's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Country Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Country. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Country Garden's price trends.

Country Garden Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Country Garden pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Country Garden could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Country Garden by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Country Garden Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Country Garden's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Country Garden's current price.

Country Garden Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Country Garden pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Country Garden shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Country Garden pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Country Garden Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Country Garden Risk Indicators

The analysis of Country Garden's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Country Garden's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting country pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Country Garden

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Country Garden position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Country Garden will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Country Pink Sheet

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Country Garden could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Country Garden when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Country Garden - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Country Garden Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of Country Garden is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Country Garden moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Country Garden Holdings moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Country Garden can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Country Garden to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

Complementary Tools for Country Pink Sheet analysis

When running Country Garden's price analysis, check to measure Country Garden's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Country Garden is operating at the current time. Most of Country Garden's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Country Garden's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Country Garden's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Country Garden to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Country Garden's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Country Garden is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Country Garden's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.