Mfs Diversified Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

DIFEX Fund  USD 12.08  0.08  0.67%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Mfs Diversified Income on the next trading day is expected to be 12.00 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.06  and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.70. Mfs Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Mfs Diversified stock prices and determine the direction of Mfs Diversified Income's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Mfs Diversified's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mfs Diversified to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Mfs Diversified cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Mfs Diversified's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Mfs Diversified's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Mfs Diversified price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Mfs Diversified Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Mfs Diversified Income on the next trading day is expected to be 12.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mfs Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mfs Diversified's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mfs Diversified Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Mfs DiversifiedMfs Diversified Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Mfs Diversified Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Mfs Diversified's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mfs Diversified's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.65 and 12.35, respectively. We have considered Mfs Diversified's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.08
12.00
Expected Value
12.35
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mfs Diversified mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mfs Diversified mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.66
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0596
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.005
SAESum of the absolute errors3.6981
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Mfs Diversified Income historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Mfs Diversified

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mfs Diversified Income. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mfs Diversified's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.7312.0812.43
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.6812.0312.38
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Mfs Diversified. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Mfs Diversified's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Mfs Diversified's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Mfs Diversified Income.

Other Forecasting Options for Mfs Diversified

For every potential investor in Mfs, whether a beginner or expert, Mfs Diversified's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mfs Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mfs. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mfs Diversified's price trends.

Mfs Diversified Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mfs Diversified mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mfs Diversified could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mfs Diversified by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Mfs Diversified Income Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Mfs Diversified's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Mfs Diversified's current price.

Mfs Diversified Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mfs Diversified mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mfs Diversified shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mfs Diversified mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Mfs Diversified Income entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Mfs Diversified Risk Indicators

The analysis of Mfs Diversified's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mfs Diversified's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mfs mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Mfs Diversified in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Mfs Diversified's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Mfs Diversified options trading.

Pair Trading with Mfs Diversified

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Mfs Diversified position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Mfs Diversified will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Mfs Mutual Fund

  0.71FPPJX Mfs Prudent InvestorPairCorr
  0.71FPPQX Mfs Prudent InvestorPairCorr
  0.68FPPRX Mfs Prudent InvestorPairCorr
  0.7FPPSX Mfs Prudent InvestorPairCorr
  0.72FPPUX Mfs Prudent InvestorPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Mfs Diversified could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Mfs Diversified when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Mfs Diversified - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Mfs Diversified Income to buy it.
The correlation of Mfs Diversified is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Mfs Diversified moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Mfs Diversified Income moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Mfs Diversified can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mfs Diversified to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Mfs Diversified Income information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Mfs Diversified's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.

Complementary Tools for Mfs Mutual Fund analysis

When running Mfs Diversified's price analysis, check to measure Mfs Diversified's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mfs Diversified is operating at the current time. Most of Mfs Diversified's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mfs Diversified's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mfs Diversified's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mfs Diversified to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Mfs Diversified's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Mfs Diversified is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mfs Diversified's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.