Delek Automotive Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

DLEA Stock  ILA 2,238  38.00  1.67%   
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Delek Automotive Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 2,270 with a mean absolute deviation of  64.22  and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,404. Delek Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Delek Automotive stock prices and determine the direction of Delek Automotive Systems's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Delek Automotive's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Delek Automotive to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Delek Automotive cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Delek Automotive's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Delek Automotive's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Delek Automotive is based on an artificially constructed time series of Delek Automotive daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Delek Automotive 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Delek Automotive Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 2,270 with a mean absolute deviation of 64.22, mean absolute percentage error of 6,321, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,404.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Delek Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Delek Automotive's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Delek Automotive Stock Forecast Pattern

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Delek Automotive Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Delek Automotive's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Delek Automotive's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2,267 and 2,273, respectively. We have considered Delek Automotive's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2,238
2,270
Expected Value
2,273
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Delek Automotive stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Delek Automotive stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.1592
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 10.7241
MADMean absolute deviation64.2193
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0292
SAESum of the absolute errors3403.625
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Delek Automotive Systems 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Delek Automotive

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Delek Automotive Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Delek Automotive's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2,2352,2382,241
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2,0032,0062,462
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Delek Automotive. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Delek Automotive's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Delek Automotive's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Delek Automotive Systems.

Other Forecasting Options for Delek Automotive

For every potential investor in Delek, whether a beginner or expert, Delek Automotive's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Delek Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Delek. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Delek Automotive's price trends.

Delek Automotive Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Delek Automotive stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Delek Automotive could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Delek Automotive by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Delek Automotive Systems Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Delek Automotive's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Delek Automotive's current price.

Delek Automotive Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Delek Automotive stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Delek Automotive shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Delek Automotive stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Delek Automotive Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Delek Automotive Risk Indicators

The analysis of Delek Automotive's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Delek Automotive's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting delek stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Delek Automotive

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Delek Automotive position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Delek Automotive will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Delek Automotive could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Delek Automotive when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Delek Automotive - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Delek Automotive Systems to buy it.
The correlation of Delek Automotive is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Delek Automotive moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Delek Automotive Systems moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Delek Automotive can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Delek Automotive to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between Delek Automotive's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Delek Automotive is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Delek Automotive's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.