FBD Holdings Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| EG7 Stock | EUR 13.90 0.45 3.35% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of FBD Holdings PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 13.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.51. FBD Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast FBD Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of FBD Holdings PLC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of FBD Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FBD Holdings to cross-verify your projections. FBD |
Most investors in FBD Holdings cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the FBD Holdings' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets FBD Holdings' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
FBD Holdings polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for FBD Holdings PLC as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. FBD Holdings Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of FBD Holdings PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 13.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.51.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FBD Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FBD Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
FBD Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest FBD Holdings | FBD Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
FBD Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting FBD Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FBD Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.26 and 15.49, respectively. We have considered FBD Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FBD Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FBD Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.9736 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1856 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0148 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.5086 |
Predictive Modules for FBD Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FBD Holdings PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FBD Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for FBD Holdings
For every potential investor in FBD, whether a beginner or expert, FBD Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FBD Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FBD. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FBD Holdings' price trends.FBD Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FBD Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FBD Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FBD Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FBD Holdings PLC Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of FBD Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of FBD Holdings' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
FBD Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FBD Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FBD Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FBD Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify FBD Holdings PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 315.58 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.5 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | |||
| Day Median Price | 13.85 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 13.87 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.28 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.45 |
FBD Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of FBD Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FBD Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fbd stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Variance | 2.53 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.86 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.11 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.62) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with FBD Holdings
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if FBD Holdings position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in FBD Holdings will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with FBD Stock
| 0.72 | RYA | Ryanair Holdings plc | PairCorr |
| 0.75 | KRX | Kingspan Group plc | PairCorr |
| 0.95 | A5G | AIB Group PLC | PairCorr |
Moving against FBD Stock
| 0.57 | GRP | Greencoat Renewables PLC | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to FBD Holdings could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace FBD Holdings when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back FBD Holdings - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling FBD Holdings PLC to buy it.
The correlation of FBD Holdings is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as FBD Holdings moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if FBD Holdings PLC moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for FBD Holdings can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FBD Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Note that the FBD Holdings PLC information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other FBD Holdings' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Complementary Tools for FBD Stock analysis
When running FBD Holdings' price analysis, check to measure FBD Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy FBD Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of FBD Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of FBD Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move FBD Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of FBD Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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