Electra Real Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

ELCRE Stock  ILS 3,870  85.00  2.25%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Electra Real Estate on the next trading day is expected to be 3,864 with a mean absolute deviation of  70.98  and the sum of the absolute errors of 4,188. Electra Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Electra Real stock prices and determine the direction of Electra Real Estate's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Electra Real's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Electra Real to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Electra Real cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Electra Real's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Electra Real's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Electra Real - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Electra Real prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Electra Real price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Electra Real Estate.

Electra Real Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Electra Real Estate on the next trading day is expected to be 3,864 with a mean absolute deviation of 70.98, mean absolute percentage error of 8,332, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4,188.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Electra Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Electra Real's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Electra Real Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Electra RealElectra Real Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Electra Real Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Electra Real's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Electra Real's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3,862 and 3,866, respectively. We have considered Electra Real's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3,870
3,864
Expected Value
3,866
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Electra Real stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Electra Real stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -8.8136
MADMean absolute deviation70.9831
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0187
SAESum of the absolute errors4188.0
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Electra Real observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Electra Real Estate observations.

Predictive Modules for Electra Real

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Electra Real Estate. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Electra Real's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
3,8683,8703,872
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3,8553,8584,257
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
3,7293,8123,894
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Electra Real. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Electra Real's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Electra Real's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Electra Real Estate.

Other Forecasting Options for Electra Real

For every potential investor in Electra, whether a beginner or expert, Electra Real's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Electra Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Electra. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Electra Real's price trends.

Electra Real Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Electra Real stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Electra Real could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Electra Real by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Electra Real Estate Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Electra Real's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Electra Real's current price.

Electra Real Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Electra Real stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Electra Real shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Electra Real stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Electra Real Estate entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Electra Real Risk Indicators

The analysis of Electra Real's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Electra Real's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting electra stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Electra Real

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Electra Real position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Electra Real will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Electra Stock

  0.58SAE ShufersalPairCorr
  0.52HARL Harel Insurance Inve Earnings Call TodayPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Electra Real could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Electra Real when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Electra Real - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Electra Real Estate to buy it.
The correlation of Electra Real is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Electra Real moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Electra Real Estate moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Electra Real can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Electra Real to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Electra Real Estate information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Electra Real's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.

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When running Electra Real's price analysis, check to measure Electra Real's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Electra Real is operating at the current time. Most of Electra Real's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Electra Real's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Electra Real's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Electra Real to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Electra Real's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Electra Real is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Electra Real's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.