Elspec Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ELSPC Stock | ILA 557.00 0.90 0.16% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Elspec on the next trading day is expected to be 562.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 15.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 910.17. Elspec Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Elspec stock prices and determine the direction of Elspec's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Elspec's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Elspec to cross-verify your projections. Elspec |
Most investors in Elspec cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Elspec's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Elspec's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Elspec works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Elspec Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Elspec on the next trading day is expected to be 562.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 15.43, mean absolute percentage error of 521.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 910.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Elspec Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Elspec's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Elspec Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Elspec | Elspec Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Elspec Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Elspec's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Elspec's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 558.13 and 566.19, respectively. We have considered Elspec's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Elspec stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Elspec stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.6699 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 15.4266 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0256 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 910.1712 |
Predictive Modules for Elspec
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Elspec. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Elspec's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Elspec
For every potential investor in Elspec, whether a beginner or expert, Elspec's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Elspec Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Elspec. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Elspec's price trends.Elspec Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Elspec stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Elspec could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Elspec by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Elspec Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Elspec's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Elspec's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Elspec Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Elspec stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Elspec shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Elspec stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Elspec entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Elspec Risk Indicators
The analysis of Elspec's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Elspec's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting elspec stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.58 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.61 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.04 | |||
| Variance | 16.3 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.81 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.72) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Elspec
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Elspec position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Elspec will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Elspec could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Elspec when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Elspec - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Elspec to buy it.
The correlation of Elspec is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Elspec moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Elspec moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Elspec can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Elspec to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Elspec information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Elspec's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Complementary Tools for Elspec Stock analysis
When running Elspec's price analysis, check to measure Elspec's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Elspec is operating at the current time. Most of Elspec's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Elspec's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Elspec's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Elspec to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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