Evaluator Growth Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction
EVGRX Fund | USD 11.08 0.10 0.91% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Evaluator Growth Rms on the next trading day is expected to be 10.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.01. Evaluator Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Evaluator Growth stock prices and determine the direction of Evaluator Growth Rms's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Evaluator Growth's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evaluator Growth to cross-verify your projections. Evaluator |
Most investors in Evaluator Growth cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Evaluator Growth's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Evaluator Growth's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Evaluator Growth is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Evaluator Growth Rms value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Evaluator Growth Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Evaluator Growth Rms on the next trading day is expected to be 10.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.01.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Evaluator Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Evaluator Growth's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Evaluator Growth Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
Backtest Evaluator Growth | Evaluator Growth Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Evaluator Growth Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Evaluator Growth's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Evaluator Growth's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.29 and 11.48, respectively. We have considered Evaluator Growth's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Evaluator Growth mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Evaluator Growth mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.5494 |
Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0493 |
MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0045 |
SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.0086 |
Predictive Modules for Evaluator Growth
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evaluator Growth Rms. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Evaluator Growth's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Evaluator Growth
For every potential investor in Evaluator, whether a beginner or expert, Evaluator Growth's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Evaluator Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Evaluator. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Evaluator Growth's price trends.Evaluator Growth Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Evaluator Growth mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Evaluator Growth could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Evaluator Growth by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Risk & Return | Correlation |
Evaluator Growth Rms Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Evaluator Growth's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Evaluator Growth's current price.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
Evaluator Growth Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Evaluator Growth mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Evaluator Growth shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Evaluator Growth mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Evaluator Growth Rms entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
Day Median Price | 11.08 | |||
Day Typical Price | 11.08 | |||
Price Action Indicator | 0.05 | |||
Period Momentum Indicator | 0.1 | |||
Relative Strength Index | 60.1 |
Evaluator Growth Risk Indicators
The analysis of Evaluator Growth's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Evaluator Growth's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting evaluator mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Mean Deviation | 0.4314 | |||
Semi Deviation | 0.5652 | |||
Standard Deviation | 0.5874 | |||
Variance | 0.345 | |||
Downside Variance | 0.5621 | |||
Semi Variance | 0.3195 | |||
Expected Short fall | (0.48) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Evaluator Growth
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Evaluator Growth position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Evaluator Growth will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Evaluator Mutual Fund
1.0 | EVAGX | Evaluator Aggressive Rms | PairCorr |
0.99 | EVFTX | Evaluator Tactically | PairCorr |
1.0 | EVFMX | Evaluator Moderate Rms | PairCorr |
1.0 | EVFGX | Evaluator Aggressive Rms | PairCorr |
0.97 | EVFCX | Evaluator Conservative | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Evaluator Growth could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Evaluator Growth when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Evaluator Growth - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Evaluator Growth Rms to buy it.
The correlation of Evaluator Growth is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Evaluator Growth moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Evaluator Growth Rms moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Evaluator Growth can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evaluator Growth to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.