Ford Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

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F -- USA Stock  

Trending

Ford Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ford historical stock prices and determine the direction of Ford Motor future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Ford historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Ford naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Ford Motor systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ford fundamentals over time. Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ford to cross-verify your projections.

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Ford Receivables Turnover is expected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The last year's Receivables Turnover was at 2.43. The current year Inventory Turnover is expected to grow to 15.46, whereas Accrued Expenses Turnover is expected to decline to 9.95. . The current year Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to grow to about 4.2 B, whereas Weighted Average Shares is expected to decline to about 3.9 B.
Triple exponential smoothing for Ford - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Ford prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Ford price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Ford Motor.

Ford Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of June

Given 30 days horizon, the forecasted value of Ford Motor on the next trading day is expected to be  6.02  with a mean absolute deviation of  0.22 , mean absolute percentage error of  0.09 , and the sum of the absolute errors of  13.13 
 6.02 

Ford Stock Forecast Pattern

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Ford Forecasted Value

Market Value
5.97
2nd of June 2020
6.02
Expected Value
11.64
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0532
MADMean absolute deviation0.2226
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0434
SAESum of the absolute errors13.1307
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Ford observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Ford Motor observations.

Predictive Modules for Ford

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ford Motor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Earnings
Estimates (6)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-1.8-1.44-1.14
Details
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.325.9011.48
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.115.6911.27
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
4.515.286.05
Details
Analysts
Consensus (10)
LowTarget PriceHigh
4.305.767.00
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Ford

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Current Sentiment - F

Ford Motor Investor Sentiment

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 2017 2018 2019 2020 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity2.942.83.053.5
Interest Coverage7.166.072.392.85
Ford Motor Company designs, manufactures, markets, and services a range of Ford cars, trucks, sport utility vehicles, electrified vehicles, and Lincoln luxury vehicles worldwide. The company was founded in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan. Ford operates under Auto Manufacturers classification in USA and is traded on BATS Exchange. It employs 190000 people.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ford to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Macroaxis is not a registered investment advisor or broker/dealer. All investments, including stocks, funds, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies, are speculative and involve substantial risk of loss. We encourage our investors to invest carefully. Much of our information is derived directly from data published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies which we believe are reliable, but are without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. We do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our statements or recommendations. Also, note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, and all investment decisions of an individual remain the responsibility of that individual. There is no guarantee that systems, indicators, or signals will result in profits or that they will not result in losses. All investors are advised to fully understand all risks associated with any investing they choose to do. Hypothetical or simulated performance is not indicative of future results. We make no representations or warranties that any investor will, or is likely to, achieve profits similar to those shown because hypothetical or simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. For more information please visit our terms and condition page