Facebook Polynomial Regression

FB -- USA Stock  

USD 202.00  4.51  2.28%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Facebook historic prices and determine the direction of Facebook future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Facebook historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Facebook systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Facebook fundamentals over time. Additionally see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Facebook to cross-verify your projections.
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 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Facebook polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Facebook as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Facebook on the next trading day is expected to be 206.775882

Facebook Prediction Pattern

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Facebook Forecasted Value

June 20, 2018
202.00
Market Value
Downside
203.43
206.78
Next Trading Day Expected Value
Target Odds
  
210.13
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria38.4558
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.5161
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0079
SAESum of the absolute errors25.774
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Facebook historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm