Fairfax Financial Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FFH Stock | CAD 1,514 9.20 0.61% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fairfax Financial Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1,514 with a mean absolute deviation of 18.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,139. Fairfax Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Fairfax Financial stock prices and determine the direction of Fairfax Financial Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Fairfax Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Fairfax Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Fairfax Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Fairfax Financial fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fairfax Financial to cross-verify your projections. Fairfax |
Most investors in Fairfax Financial cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Fairfax Financial's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Fairfax Financial's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Fairfax Financial simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Fairfax Financial Holdings are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Fairfax Financial prices get older. Fairfax Financial Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fairfax Financial Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1,514 with a mean absolute deviation of 18.98, mean absolute percentage error of 861.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,139.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fairfax Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fairfax Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fairfax Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
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Fairfax Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fairfax Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fairfax Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,512 and 1,516, respectively. We have considered Fairfax Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fairfax Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fairfax Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.0314 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -2.946 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 18.979 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0136 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1138.74 |
Predictive Modules for Fairfax Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fairfax Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fairfax Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Fairfax Financial
For every potential investor in Fairfax, whether a beginner or expert, Fairfax Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fairfax Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fairfax. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fairfax Financial's price trends.Fairfax Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fairfax Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fairfax Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fairfax Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fairfax Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fairfax Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fairfax Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Fairfax Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fairfax Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fairfax Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fairfax Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fairfax Financial Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0154 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.3925 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1508.28 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1510.12 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 23.44 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 10.11 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 9.2 |
Fairfax Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fairfax Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fairfax Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fairfax stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Variance | 4.2 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.93 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.05 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.36) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fairfax Financial to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Fairfax Financial information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Fairfax Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.
Complementary Tools for Fairfax Stock analysis
When running Fairfax Financial's price analysis, check to measure Fairfax Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fairfax Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Fairfax Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fairfax Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fairfax Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fairfax Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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