Fossil Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

FOSL Stock  USD 0.97  0.08  8.99%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Fossil Group on the next trading day is expected to be 0.93 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.05  and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.75. Fossil Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Fossil stock prices and determine the direction of Fossil Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Fossil's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Fossil's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Fossil's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Fossil fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fossil to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, Fossil's Inventory Turnover is quite stable compared to the past year. Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to rise to 10.77 this year, although the value of Payables Turnover will most likely fall to 4.87. . The value of Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to slide to about 51.2 M. Net Loss is expected to rise to about (37.8 M) this year.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Fossil Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Fossil's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Fossil's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Fossil stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Fossil's open interest, investors have to compare it to Fossil's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Fossil is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Fossil. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Fossil cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Fossil's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Fossil's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Fossil Group is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Fossil 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Fossil Group on the next trading day is expected to be 0.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.75.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fossil Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fossil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Fossil Stock Forecast Pattern

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Fossil Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Fossil's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fossil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 4.98, respectively. We have considered Fossil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.97
0.93
Expected Value
4.98
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fossil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fossil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria106.7978
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0216
MADMean absolute deviation0.0473
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0443
SAESum of the absolute errors2.745
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Fossil. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Fossil Group and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Fossil

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fossil Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fossil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.050.955.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.122.466.51
Details
0 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
6.377.007.77
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Fossil. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Fossil's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Fossil's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Fossil Group.

Other Forecasting Options for Fossil

For every potential investor in Fossil, whether a beginner or expert, Fossil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fossil Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fossil. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fossil's price trends.

Fossil Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fossil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fossil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fossil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Fossil Group Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fossil's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fossil's current price.

Fossil Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fossil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fossil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fossil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fossil Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Fossil Risk Indicators

The analysis of Fossil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fossil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fossil stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Fossil in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Fossil's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Fossil options trading.

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When determining whether Fossil Group is a strong investment it is important to analyze Fossil's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Fossil's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Fossil Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fossil to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.

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When running Fossil's price analysis, check to measure Fossil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fossil is operating at the current time. Most of Fossil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fossil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fossil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fossil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Fossil's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fossil. If investors know Fossil will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fossil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.82)
Earnings Share
(3.00)
Revenue Per Share
27.014
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.16)
Return On Assets
(0.05)
The market value of Fossil Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fossil that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fossil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fossil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fossil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fossil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fossil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fossil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fossil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.