Fossil Triple Exponential Smoothing

FOSL -- USA Stock  

USD 12.00  0.51  4.08%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Fossil historic prices and determine the direction of Fossil Group future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Fossil historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Fossil Group systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Fossil fundamentals over time. Additionally see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fossil to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Triple exponential smoothing for Fossil - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Fossil prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Fossil price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Fossil Group.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Fossil Group on the next trading day is expected to be 12.48

Fossil Group Prediction Pattern

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Fossil Forecasted Value

September 18, 2019
12.00
Market Value
12.48
Expected Value
22.85
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0542
MADMean absolute deviation0.3156
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0285
SAESum of the absolute errors18.62
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Fossil observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Fossil Group observations.

Volatility Measures

Fossil Risk Indicators

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