General Mills 4 Period Moving Average

GIS -- USA Stock  

USD 53.85  0.12  0.22%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast General Mills historic prices and determine the direction of General Mills future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of General Mills historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of General Mills systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of General Mills fundamentals over time. Please also check Historical Fundamental Analysis of General Mills to cross-verify your projections.
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A four-period moving average forecast model for General Mills is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of General Mills on the next trading day is expected to be 54.0575

General Mills Prediction Pattern

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General Mills Forecasted Value

September 15, 2019
53.85
Market Value
54.06
Expected Value
57.86
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria110.2984
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0322
MADMean absolute deviation0.6403
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.012
SAESum of the absolute errors36.495
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of General Mills. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for General Mills and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Volatility Measures

General Mills Risk Indicators

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