General Mills Naive Prediction

GIS -- USA Stock  

USD 53.97  0.12  0.22%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast General Mills historic prices and determine the direction of General Mills future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of General Mills historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of General Mills systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of General Mills fundamentals over time. Please also check Historical Fundamental Analysis of General Mills to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A naive forecasting model for General Mills is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of General Mills value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of General Mills on the next trading day is expected to be 53.992576

General Mills Prediction Pattern

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General Mills Forecasted Value

September 16, 2019
53.97
Market Value
53.99
Expected Value
57.81
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria119.238
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5288
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0099
SAESum of the absolute errors32.7882
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of General Mills. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

General Mills Risk Indicators

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