General Mills Simple Exponential Smoothing

GIS -- USA Stock  

USD 53.97  0.12  0.22%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast General Mills historic prices and determine the direction of General Mills future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of General Mills historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of General Mills systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of General Mills fundamentals over time. Please also check Historical Fundamental Analysis of General Mills to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
General Mills simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for General Mills are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as General Mills prices get older.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of General Mills on the next trading day is expected to be 53.951035

General Mills Prediction Pattern

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General Mills Forecasted Value

September 16, 2019
53.97
Market Value
53.95
Expected Value
57.77
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria117.2669
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.009
MADMean absolute deviation0.4892
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0092
SAESum of the absolute errors29.8402
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting General Mills forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent General Mills observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Volatility Measures

General Mills Risk Indicators

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