Grupo Herdez Pink Sheet Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

GUZOF Stock  USD 2.60  0.00  0.00%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Grupo Herdez SAB on the next trading day is expected to be 2.60 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.03  and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.02. Grupo Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Grupo Herdez stock prices and determine the direction of Grupo Herdez SAB's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Grupo Herdez's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grupo Herdez to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Grupo Herdez cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Grupo Herdez's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Grupo Herdez's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Grupo Herdez works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Grupo Herdez Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Grupo Herdez SAB on the next trading day is expected to be 2.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.02.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Grupo Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Grupo Herdez's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Grupo Herdez Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Grupo Herdez Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Grupo Herdez's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Grupo Herdez's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.54 and 4.66, respectively. We have considered Grupo Herdez's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.60
2.60
Expected Value
4.66
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Grupo Herdez pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Grupo Herdez pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0086
MADMean absolute deviation0.0342
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.013
SAESum of the absolute errors2.0197
When Grupo Herdez SAB prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Grupo Herdez SAB trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Grupo Herdez observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Grupo Herdez

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grupo Herdez SAB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Grupo Herdez's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.542.604.66
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.552.614.68
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Grupo Herdez. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Grupo Herdez's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Grupo Herdez's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Grupo Herdez SAB.

Other Forecasting Options for Grupo Herdez

For every potential investor in Grupo, whether a beginner or expert, Grupo Herdez's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Grupo Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Grupo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Grupo Herdez's price trends.

Grupo Herdez Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Grupo Herdez pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Grupo Herdez could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Grupo Herdez by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Grupo Herdez SAB Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Grupo Herdez's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Grupo Herdez's current price.

Grupo Herdez Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Grupo Herdez pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Grupo Herdez shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Grupo Herdez pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Grupo Herdez SAB entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Grupo Herdez Risk Indicators

The analysis of Grupo Herdez's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Grupo Herdez's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting grupo pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grupo Herdez to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between Grupo Herdez's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Grupo Herdez is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Grupo Herdez's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.