GRUPO HERDEZ Triple Exponential Smoothing

GUZOF -- USA Stock  

USD 1.97  0.05  2.56%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast GRUPO HERDEZ historic prices and determine the direction of GRUPO HERDEZ SAB DE CV future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of GRUPO HERDEZ historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Please also check Historical Fundamental Analysis of GRUPO HERDEZ to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Triple exponential smoothing for GRUPO HERDEZ - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When GRUPO HERDEZ prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in GRUPO HERDEZ price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of GRUPO HERDEZ SAB.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of GRUPO HERDEZ SAB DE CV on the next trading day is expected to be 1.960735

GRUPO HERDEZ SAB Prediction Pattern

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GRUPO HERDEZ Forecasted Value

November 14, 2019
Market Value
Expected Value

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0053
MADMean absolute deviation0.0345
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0164
SAESum of the absolute errors2.037
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past GRUPO HERDEZ observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older GRUPO HERDEZ SAB DE CV observations.

Volatility Measures

GRUPO HERDEZ Risk Indicators