Home BancShares Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| HOMB Stock | USD 22.84 0.09 0.39% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Home BancShares on the next trading day is expected to be 23.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.80. Home Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Home BancShares stock prices and determine the direction of Home BancShares's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Home BancShares' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Home BancShares' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Home BancShares' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Home BancShares fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Home BancShares to cross-verify your projections. Home |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Home Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Home BancShares' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Home BancShares' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Home BancShares stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Home BancShares' open interest, investors have to compare it to Home BancShares' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Home BancShares is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Home. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Home BancShares cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Home BancShares' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Home BancShares' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Home BancShares price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X. Home BancShares Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 17th of April 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Home BancShares on the next trading day is expected to be 23.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 0.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Home Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Home BancShares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Home BancShares Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Home BancShares | Home BancShares Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Home BancShares Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Home BancShares' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Home BancShares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.67 and 25.15, respectively. We have considered Home BancShares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Home BancShares stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Home BancShares stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8401 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4558 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0193 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.8046 |
Predictive Modules for Home BancShares
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Home BancShares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Home BancShares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Home BancShares
For every potential investor in Home, whether a beginner or expert, Home BancShares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Home Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Home. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Home BancShares' price trends.Home BancShares Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Home BancShares stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Home BancShares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Home BancShares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Home BancShares Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Home BancShares' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Home BancShares' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Home BancShares Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Home BancShares stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Home BancShares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Home BancShares stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Home BancShares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Home BancShares Risk Indicators
The analysis of Home BancShares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Home BancShares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting home stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.74 | |||
| Variance | 3.01 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Home BancShares to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Home Stock refer to our How to Trade Home Stock guide.You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
Complementary Tools for Home Stock analysis
When running Home BancShares' price analysis, check to measure Home BancShares' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Home BancShares is operating at the current time. Most of Home BancShares' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Home BancShares' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Home BancShares' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Home BancShares to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| AI Investment Finder Use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities | |
| AI Portfolio Architect Use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities | |
| Portfolio Volatility Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk | |
| My Watchlist Analysis Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like | |
| Global Correlations Find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets | |
| Content Syndication Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal | |
| Instant Ratings Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance |
Is Home BancShares' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Home BancShares. If investors know Home will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Home BancShares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.25) | Dividend Share 0.72 | Earnings Share 1.94 | Revenue Per Share 4.845 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) |
The market value of Home BancShares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Home that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Home BancShares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Home BancShares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Home BancShares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Home BancShares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Home BancShares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Home BancShares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Home BancShares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.