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International Business Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

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IBM -- USA Stock  

Fiscal Quarter End: March 31, 2020  

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast International Business historic stock prices and determine the direction of International Business Machines future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of International Business historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of International Business Machines systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of International Business fundamentals over time. Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of International Business to cross-verify your projections.
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A naive forecasting model for International Business is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of International Business Machines value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of International Business Machines on the next trading day is expected to be 148.306266

International Business Stock Forecast Pattern

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International Business Forecasted Value

Market Value
151.31
February 20, 2020
143.95
Downside
148.31
Expected Value
152.66
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria119.7188
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.4381
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0101
SAESum of the absolute errors87.7212
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of International Business Machines. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

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International Business Risk Indicators

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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of International Business to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Fund Screener module to find activelly-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.