ChipMOS Technologies Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| IMOS Stock | USD 28.40 0.31 1.10% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ChipMOS Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 28.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.87. ChipMOS Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ChipMOS Technologies stock prices and determine the direction of ChipMOS Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of ChipMOS Technologies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although ChipMOS Technologies' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of ChipMOS Technologies' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of ChipMOS Technologies fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ChipMOS Technologies to cross-verify your projections. ChipMOS |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 ChipMOS Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ChipMOS Technologies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in ChipMOS Technologies' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for ChipMOS Technologies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ChipMOS Technologies' open interest, investors have to compare it to ChipMOS Technologies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ChipMOS Technologies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in ChipMOS. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in ChipMOS Technologies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the ChipMOS Technologies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets ChipMOS Technologies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for ChipMOS Technologies - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When ChipMOS Technologies prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in ChipMOS Technologies price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of ChipMOS Technologies. ChipMOS Technologies Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ChipMOS Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 28.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.87.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ChipMOS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ChipMOS Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ChipMOS Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ChipMOS Technologies | ChipMOS Technologies Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
ChipMOS Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ChipMOS Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ChipMOS Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.56 and 30.42, respectively. We have considered ChipMOS Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ChipMOS Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ChipMOS Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0692 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4312 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0147 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.87 |
Predictive Modules for ChipMOS Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ChipMOS Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ChipMOS Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for ChipMOS Technologies
For every potential investor in ChipMOS, whether a beginner or expert, ChipMOS Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ChipMOS Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ChipMOS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ChipMOS Technologies' price trends.ChipMOS Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ChipMOS Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ChipMOS Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ChipMOS Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ChipMOS Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ChipMOS Technologies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ChipMOS Technologies' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ChipMOS Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ChipMOS Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ChipMOS Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ChipMOS Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ChipMOS Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
ChipMOS Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of ChipMOS Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ChipMOS Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting chipmos stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Variance | 3.51 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.01 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.62 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.52) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ChipMOS Technologies to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy ChipMOS Stock please use our How to Invest in ChipMOS Technologies guide.You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Complementary Tools for ChipMOS Stock analysis
When running ChipMOS Technologies' price analysis, check to measure ChipMOS Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ChipMOS Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of ChipMOS Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ChipMOS Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ChipMOS Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ChipMOS Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is ChipMOS Technologies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ChipMOS Technologies. If investors know ChipMOS will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ChipMOS Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.114 | Earnings Share 1.65 | Revenue Per Share 587.32 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.222 | Return On Assets 0.0261 |
The market value of ChipMOS Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ChipMOS that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ChipMOS Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ChipMOS Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ChipMOS Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ChipMOS Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ChipMOS Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ChipMOS Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ChipMOS Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.