ING Group Naive Prediction

ING -- USA Stock  

USD 11.52  0.03  0.26%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast ING Group historic prices and determine the direction of ING Group N V future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of ING Group historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of ING Group N V systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of ING Group fundamentals over time. Please also check Historical Fundamental Analysis of ING Group to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A naive forecasting model for ING Group is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ING Group N V value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of ING Group N V on the next trading day is expected to be 12.534594

ING Group N Prediction Pattern

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ING Group Forecasted Value

October 22, 2019
11.52
Market Value
12.53
Expected Value
17.93
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria115.1763
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1879
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0183
SAESum of the absolute errors11.461
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ING Group N V. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

ING Group Risk Indicators

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