Isracard Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ISCD Stock   1,410  46.00  3.37%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Isracard on the next trading day is expected to be 1,367 with a mean absolute deviation of  26.90  and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,668. Isracard Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Isracard stock prices and determine the direction of Isracard's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Isracard's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Isracard to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Isracard cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Isracard's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Isracard's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Isracard is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Isracard value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Isracard Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Isracard on the next trading day is expected to be 1,367 with a mean absolute deviation of 26.90, mean absolute percentage error of 1,393, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,668.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Isracard Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Isracard's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Isracard Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest IsracardIsracard Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Isracard Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Isracard's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Isracard's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,365 and 1,369, respectively. We have considered Isracard's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1,410
1,367
Expected Value
1,369
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Isracard stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Isracard stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria127.1877
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation26.8963
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0201
SAESum of the absolute errors1667.5692
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Isracard. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Isracard. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Isracard

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Isracard. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Isracard's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1,4081,4101,412
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1,3791,3811,551
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
1,3201,3741,427
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Isracard. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Isracard's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Isracard's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Isracard.

Other Forecasting Options for Isracard

For every potential investor in Isracard, whether a beginner or expert, Isracard's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Isracard Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Isracard. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Isracard's price trends.

Isracard Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Isracard stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Isracard could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Isracard by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Isracard Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Isracard's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Isracard's current price.

Isracard Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Isracard stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Isracard shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Isracard stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Isracard entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Isracard Risk Indicators

The analysis of Isracard's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Isracard's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting isracard stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Isracard to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.

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When running Isracard's price analysis, check to measure Isracard's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Isracard is operating at the current time. Most of Isracard's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Isracard's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Isracard's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Isracard to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Isracard's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Isracard is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Isracard's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.