Eastman Kodak Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

KODK Stock  USD 4.80  0.23  5.03%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Eastman Kodak Co on the next trading day is expected to be 4.04 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.23  and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.51. Eastman Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Eastman Kodak stock prices and determine the direction of Eastman Kodak Co's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Eastman Kodak's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Eastman Kodak's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Eastman Kodak's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Eastman Kodak fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eastman Kodak to cross-verify your projections.
  
Inventory Turnover is expected to rise to 4.37 this year, although the value of Payables Turnover will most likely fall to 4.52. . The value of Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to slide to about 86 M. The value of Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to slide to about 11.1 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Eastman Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Eastman Kodak's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Eastman Kodak's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Eastman Kodak stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Eastman Kodak's open interest, investors have to compare it to Eastman Kodak's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Eastman Kodak is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Eastman. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Eastman Kodak cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Eastman Kodak's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Eastman Kodak's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Eastman Kodak is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Eastman Kodak Co value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Eastman Kodak Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Eastman Kodak Co on the next trading day is expected to be 4.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.51.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Eastman Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Eastman Kodak's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Eastman Kodak Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Eastman KodakEastman Kodak Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Eastman Kodak Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Eastman Kodak's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Eastman Kodak's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.05 and 11.58, respectively. We have considered Eastman Kodak's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.80
4.04
Expected Value
11.58
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Eastman Kodak stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Eastman Kodak stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.7148
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.234
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0561
SAESum of the absolute errors14.5075
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Eastman Kodak Co. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Eastman Kodak. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Eastman Kodak

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Eastman Kodak. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Eastman Kodak's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.234.6812.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.122.459.98
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Eastman Kodak. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Eastman Kodak's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Eastman Kodak's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Eastman Kodak.

Other Forecasting Options for Eastman Kodak

For every potential investor in Eastman, whether a beginner or expert, Eastman Kodak's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Eastman Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Eastman. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Eastman Kodak's price trends.

Eastman Kodak Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Eastman Kodak stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Eastman Kodak could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Eastman Kodak by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Eastman Kodak Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Eastman Kodak's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Eastman Kodak's current price.

Eastman Kodak Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Eastman Kodak stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Eastman Kodak shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Eastman Kodak stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Eastman Kodak Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Eastman Kodak Risk Indicators

The analysis of Eastman Kodak's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Eastman Kodak's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting eastman stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Eastman Kodak in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Eastman Kodak's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Eastman Kodak options trading.

Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!

The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.

Try AI Portfolio Architect
When determining whether Eastman Kodak is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Eastman Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Eastman Kodak Co Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Eastman Kodak Co Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eastman Kodak to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Eastman Kodak information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Eastman Kodak's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.

Complementary Tools for Eastman Stock analysis

When running Eastman Kodak's price analysis, check to measure Eastman Kodak's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Eastman Kodak is operating at the current time. Most of Eastman Kodak's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Eastman Kodak's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Eastman Kodak's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Eastman Kodak to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Portfolio Comparator
Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account
Efficient Frontier
Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market.
Portfolio Backtesting
Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios
Portfolio Volatility
Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk
Price Ceiling Movement
Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments
Is Eastman Kodak's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Eastman Kodak. If investors know Eastman will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Eastman Kodak listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.50)
Earnings Share
0.67
Revenue Per Share
14.068
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.1)
Return On Assets
0.0447
The market value of Eastman Kodak is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Eastman that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Eastman Kodak's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Eastman Kodak's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Eastman Kodak's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Eastman Kodak's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Eastman Kodak's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Eastman Kodak is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Eastman Kodak's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.