Eli Lilly Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| LLY Stock | USD 745.95 4.82 0.64% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Eli Lilly and on the next trading day is expected to be 747.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 713.40. Eli Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Eli Lilly stock prices and determine the direction of Eli Lilly and's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Eli Lilly's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eli Lilly to cross-verify your projections. Eli |
Most investors in Eli Lilly cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Eli Lilly's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Eli Lilly's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Eli Lilly and is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. Eli Lilly 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Eli Lilly and on the next trading day is expected to be 747.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.52, mean absolute percentage error of 282.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 713.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Eli Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Eli Lilly's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Eli Lilly Stock Forecast Pattern
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Eli Lilly Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Eli Lilly's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Eli Lilly's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 745.72 and 748.99, respectively. We have considered Eli Lilly's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Eli Lilly stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Eli Lilly stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4036 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -4.8001 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 12.5158 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0169 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 713.4025 |
Predictive Modules for Eli Lilly
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Eli Lilly. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Eli Lilly's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Eli Lilly
For every potential investor in Eli, whether a beginner or expert, Eli Lilly's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Eli Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Eli. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Eli Lilly's price trends.Eli Lilly Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Eli Lilly stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Eli Lilly could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Eli Lilly by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Eli Lilly Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Eli Lilly's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Eli Lilly's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Eli Lilly Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Eli Lilly stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Eli Lilly shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Eli Lilly stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Eli Lilly and entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0112 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.57) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 747.99 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 747.31 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 8.43 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (4.44) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (4.82) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 75.24 |
Eli Lilly Risk Indicators
The analysis of Eli Lilly's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Eli Lilly's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting eli stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Variance | 2.67 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.18 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.32 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.28) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Complementary Tools for Eli Stock analysis
When running Eli Lilly's price analysis, check to measure Eli Lilly's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Eli Lilly is operating at the current time. Most of Eli Lilly's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Eli Lilly's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Eli Lilly's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Eli Lilly to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Eli Lilly's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Eli Lilly. If investors know Eli will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Eli Lilly listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Eli Lilly is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Eli that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Eli Lilly's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Eli Lilly's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Eli Lilly's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Eli Lilly's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Eli Lilly's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Eli Lilly is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Eli Lilly's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.