Lamb Weston Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

LW Stock  USD 106.30  0.70  0.66%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lamb Weston Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 106.69 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.12  and the sum of the absolute errors of 66.91. Lamb Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Lamb Weston stock prices and determine the direction of Lamb Weston Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Lamb Weston's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Lamb Weston's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Lamb Weston's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Lamb Weston fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lamb Weston to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, Lamb Weston's Fixed Asset Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Receivables Turnover is likely to climb to 14.39 in 2024, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 4.05 in 2024. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to climb to about 1.2 B in 2024, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 117.2 M in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Lamb Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Lamb Weston's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Lamb Weston's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Lamb Weston stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Lamb Weston's open interest, investors have to compare it to Lamb Weston's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Lamb Weston is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Lamb. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Lamb Weston cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Lamb Weston's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Lamb Weston's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Lamb Weston works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Lamb Weston Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lamb Weston Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 106.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.12, mean absolute percentage error of 2.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 66.91.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lamb Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lamb Weston's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Lamb Weston Stock Forecast Pattern

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Lamb Weston Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Lamb Weston's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lamb Weston's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 105.40 and 107.97, respectively. We have considered Lamb Weston's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
106.30
105.40
Downside
106.69
Expected Value
107.97
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lamb Weston stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lamb Weston stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2692
MADMean absolute deviation1.1151
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0107
SAESum of the absolute errors66.9071
When Lamb Weston Holdings prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Lamb Weston Holdings trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Lamb Weston observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Lamb Weston

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lamb Weston Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lamb Weston's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
105.03106.31107.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
95.67107.97109.25
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
101.69104.85108.01
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
108.19118.89131.97
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Lamb Weston. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Lamb Weston's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Lamb Weston's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Lamb Weston Holdings.

Other Forecasting Options for Lamb Weston

For every potential investor in Lamb, whether a beginner or expert, Lamb Weston's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lamb Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lamb. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lamb Weston's price trends.

Lamb Weston Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lamb Weston stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lamb Weston could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lamb Weston by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Lamb Weston Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Lamb Weston's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Lamb Weston's current price.

Lamb Weston Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lamb Weston stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lamb Weston shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lamb Weston stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lamb Weston Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Lamb Weston Risk Indicators

The analysis of Lamb Weston's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lamb Weston's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lamb stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Lamb Weston Investors Sentiment

The influence of Lamb Weston's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Lamb. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Lamb Weston's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Lamb. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Lamb can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Lamb Weston Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Lamb Weston's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Lamb Weston's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Lamb Weston's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Lamb Weston.

Lamb Weston Implied Volatility

    
  40.08  
Lamb Weston's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Lamb Weston Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Lamb Weston's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Lamb Weston stock will not fluctuate a lot when Lamb Weston's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Lamb Weston in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Lamb Weston's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Lamb Weston options trading.

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When determining whether Lamb Weston Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze Lamb Weston's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Lamb Weston's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Lamb Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lamb Weston to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.

Complementary Tools for Lamb Stock analysis

When running Lamb Weston's price analysis, check to measure Lamb Weston's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lamb Weston is operating at the current time. Most of Lamb Weston's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lamb Weston's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lamb Weston's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lamb Weston to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Lamb Weston's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lamb Weston. If investors know Lamb will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lamb Weston listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.085
Dividend Share
1.12
Earnings Share
7.71
Revenue Per Share
43.72
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.357
The market value of Lamb Weston Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lamb that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lamb Weston's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lamb Weston's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lamb Weston's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lamb Weston's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lamb Weston's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lamb Weston is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lamb Weston's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.