Marriott International Naive Prediction

MAR -- USA Stock  

Earning Report: November 4, 2019  

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Marriott International historic prices and determine the direction of Marriott International future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Marriott International historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Marriott International systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Marriott International fundamentals over time. Please see also Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marriott International to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A naive forecasting model for Marriott International is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Marriott International value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Marriott International on the next trading day is expected to be 126.791242

Marriott International Prediction Pattern

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Marriott International Forecasted Value

October 21, 2019
Market Value
Expected Value

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria119.7157
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.8897
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0149
SAESum of the absolute errors115.2741
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Marriott International. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

Marriott International Risk Indicators