Marriott International Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MAR Stock | USD 248.41 2.65 1.06% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Marriott International on the next trading day is expected to be 248.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 131.96. Marriott Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Marriott International stock prices and determine the direction of Marriott International's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Marriott International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Marriott International's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Marriott International's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Marriott International fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marriott International to cross-verify your projections. Marriott |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Marriott Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Marriott International's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Marriott International's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Marriott International stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Marriott International's open interest, investors have to compare it to Marriott International's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Marriott International is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Marriott. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Marriott International cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Marriott International's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Marriott International's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Marriott International simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Marriott International are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Marriott International prices get older. Marriott International Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of April 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Marriott International on the next trading day is expected to be 248.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.20, mean absolute percentage error of 10.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 131.96.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Marriott Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Marriott International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Marriott International Stock Forecast Pattern
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Marriott International Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Marriott International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Marriott International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 247.12 and 249.70, respectively. We have considered Marriott International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Marriott International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Marriott International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.5761 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2457 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.1993 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0089 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 131.96 |
Predictive Modules for Marriott International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marriott International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Marriott International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Marriott International
For every potential investor in Marriott, whether a beginner or expert, Marriott International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Marriott Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Marriott. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Marriott International's price trends.Marriott International Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Marriott International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Marriott International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Marriott International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Marriott International Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Marriott International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Marriott International's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Marriott International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Marriott International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Marriott International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Marriott International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Marriott International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0342 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.30) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 252.62 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 251.21 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 8.79 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (5.53) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.65) |
Marriott International Risk Indicators
The analysis of Marriott International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Marriott International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting marriott stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8528 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Variance | 1.58 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.32 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.77 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.84) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Marriott International Investors Sentiment
The influence of Marriott International's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Marriott. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Marriott International's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Marriott. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Marriott can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Marriott International. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Marriott International's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Marriott International's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Marriott International's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Marriott International.
Marriott International Implied Volatility | 38.52 |
Marriott International's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Marriott International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Marriott International's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Marriott International stock will not fluctuate a lot when Marriott International's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Marriott International in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Marriott International's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Marriott International options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marriott International to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Marriott Stock, please use our How to Invest in Marriott International guide.Note that the Marriott International information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Marriott International's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Complementary Tools for Marriott Stock analysis
When running Marriott International's price analysis, check to measure Marriott International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Marriott International is operating at the current time. Most of Marriott International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Marriott International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Marriott International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Marriott International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Marriott International's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Marriott International. If investors know Marriott will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Marriott International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.354 | Dividend Share 1.96 | Earnings Share 10.18 | Revenue Per Share 20.896 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.116 |
The market value of Marriott International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Marriott that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Marriott International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Marriott International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Marriott International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Marriott International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Marriott International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Marriott International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Marriott International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.