Migdal Insurance Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| MGDL Stock | ILS 465.00 9.80 2.15% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Migdal Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 461.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 512.46. Migdal Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Migdal Insurance stock prices and determine the direction of Migdal Insurance's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Migdal Insurance's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Migdal Insurance to cross-verify your projections. Migdal |
Most investors in Migdal Insurance cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Migdal Insurance's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Migdal Insurance's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Migdal Insurance - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Migdal Insurance prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Migdal Insurance price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Migdal Insurance. Migdal Insurance Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Migdal Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 461.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.69, mean absolute percentage error of 123.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 512.46.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Migdal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Migdal Insurance's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Migdal Insurance Stock Forecast Pattern
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Migdal Insurance Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Migdal Insurance's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Migdal Insurance's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 458.85 and 463.27, respectively. We have considered Migdal Insurance's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Migdal Insurance stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Migdal Insurance stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.1623 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 8.6857 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0189 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 512.4556 |
Predictive Modules for Migdal Insurance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Migdal Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Migdal Insurance's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Migdal Insurance
For every potential investor in Migdal, whether a beginner or expert, Migdal Insurance's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Migdal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Migdal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Migdal Insurance's price trends.Migdal Insurance Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Migdal Insurance stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Migdal Insurance could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Migdal Insurance by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Migdal Insurance Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Migdal Insurance's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Migdal Insurance's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Migdal Insurance Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Migdal Insurance stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Migdal Insurance shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Migdal Insurance stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Migdal Insurance entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Migdal Insurance Risk Indicators
The analysis of Migdal Insurance's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Migdal Insurance's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting migdal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.29 | |||
| Variance | 5.25 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.42 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.59 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.97) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Migdal Insurance to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Complementary Tools for Migdal Stock analysis
When running Migdal Insurance's price analysis, check to measure Migdal Insurance's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Migdal Insurance is operating at the current time. Most of Migdal Insurance's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Migdal Insurance's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Migdal Insurance's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Migdal Insurance to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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