Medical Properties Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

MPW Stock  USD 4.72  0.74  18.59%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Medical Properties Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 4.00 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.18  and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.21. Medical Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Medical Properties stock prices and determine the direction of Medical Properties Trust's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Medical Properties' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Medical Properties' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Medical Properties' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Medical Properties fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Medical Properties to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, Medical Properties' Payables Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Receivables Turnover is likely to climb to 2.49 in 2024, despite the fact that Inventory Turnover is likely to grow to (0.16). . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to climb to about 628.4 M in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to climb to about 1.1 B in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-28 Medical Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Medical Properties' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Medical Properties' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Medical Properties stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Medical Properties' open interest, investors have to compare it to Medical Properties' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Medical Properties is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Medical. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Medical Properties cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Medical Properties' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Medical Properties' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Medical Properties polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Medical Properties Trust as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Medical Properties Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Medical Properties Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 4.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.21.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Medical Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Medical Properties' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Medical Properties Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Medical PropertiesMedical Properties Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Medical Properties Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Medical Properties' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Medical Properties' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.05 and 9.73, respectively. We have considered Medical Properties' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.72
4.00
Expected Value
9.73
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Medical Properties stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Medical Properties stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.0955
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1808
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.046
SAESum of the absolute errors11.2072
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Medical Properties historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Medical Properties

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Medical Properties Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Medical Properties' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.244.7210.31
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.275.4311.02
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
7.848.619.56
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Medical Properties. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Medical Properties' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Medical Properties' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Medical Properties Trust.

Other Forecasting Options for Medical Properties

For every potential investor in Medical, whether a beginner or expert, Medical Properties' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Medical Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Medical. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Medical Properties' price trends.

Medical Properties Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Medical Properties stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Medical Properties could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Medical Properties by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Medical Properties Trust Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Medical Properties' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Medical Properties' current price.

Medical Properties Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Medical Properties stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Medical Properties shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Medical Properties stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Medical Properties Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Medical Properties Risk Indicators

The analysis of Medical Properties' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Medical Properties' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting medical stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Medical Properties Trust is a strong investment it is important to analyze Medical Properties' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Medical Properties' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Medical Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Medical Properties to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

Complementary Tools for Medical Stock analysis

When running Medical Properties' price analysis, check to measure Medical Properties' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Medical Properties is operating at the current time. Most of Medical Properties' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Medical Properties' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Medical Properties' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Medical Properties to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Medical Properties' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Medical Properties. If investors know Medical will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Medical Properties listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.49)
Dividend Share
0.88
Earnings Share
(0.93)
Revenue Per Share
1.48
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.13)
The market value of Medical Properties Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Medical that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Medical Properties' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Medical Properties' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Medical Properties' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Medical Properties' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Medical Properties' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Medical Properties is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Medical Properties' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.