Morgan Stanley Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MS Stock  USD 93.50  2.22  2.43%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Morgan Stanley on the next trading day is expected to be 94.57 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.11  and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.59. Morgan Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Morgan Stanley stock prices and determine the direction of Morgan Stanley's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Morgan Stanley's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Morgan Stanley's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Morgan Stanley's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Morgan Stanley fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Morgan Stanley to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Morgan Stock please use our How to Invest in Morgan Stanley guide.
  
At this time, Morgan Stanley's Receivables Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Asset Turnover is likely to gain to 0.05 in 2024, whereas Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to drop 11.02 in 2024. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 12.7 B in 2024, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 1.2 B in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-28 Morgan Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Morgan Stanley's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Morgan Stanley's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Morgan Stanley stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Morgan Stanley's open interest, investors have to compare it to Morgan Stanley's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Morgan Stanley is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Morgan. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Morgan Stanley cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Morgan Stanley's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Morgan Stanley's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Morgan Stanley is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Morgan Stanley value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Morgan Stanley Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Morgan Stanley on the next trading day is expected to be 94.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.11, mean absolute percentage error of 2.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.59.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Morgan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Morgan Stanley's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Morgan Stanley Stock Forecast Pattern

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Morgan Stanley Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Morgan Stanley's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Morgan Stanley's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 93.08 and 96.05, respectively. We have considered Morgan Stanley's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
93.50
94.57
Expected Value
96.05
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Morgan Stanley stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Morgan Stanley stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.6504
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.1062
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0126
SAESum of the absolute errors68.5866
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Morgan Stanley. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Morgan Stanley. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Morgan Stanley

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Morgan Stanley. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Morgan Stanley's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
92.0293.4994.96
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
84.6886.15102.85
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
89.8191.9794.14
Details
24 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
78.5186.2795.76
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Morgan Stanley. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Morgan Stanley's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Morgan Stanley's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Morgan Stanley.

Other Forecasting Options for Morgan Stanley

For every potential investor in Morgan, whether a beginner or expert, Morgan Stanley's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Morgan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Morgan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Morgan Stanley's price trends.

Morgan Stanley Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Morgan Stanley stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Morgan Stanley could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Morgan Stanley by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Morgan Stanley Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Morgan Stanley's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Morgan Stanley's current price.

Morgan Stanley Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Morgan Stanley stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Morgan Stanley shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Morgan Stanley stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Morgan Stanley entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Morgan Stanley Risk Indicators

The analysis of Morgan Stanley's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Morgan Stanley's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting morgan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Morgan Stanley Investors Sentiment

The influence of Morgan Stanley's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Morgan. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Morgan Stanley's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Morgan. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Morgan can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Morgan Stanley. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Morgan Stanley's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Morgan Stanley's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Morgan Stanley's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley Implied Volatility

    
  30.61  
Morgan Stanley's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Morgan Stanley stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Morgan Stanley's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Morgan Stanley stock will not fluctuate a lot when Morgan Stanley's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Morgan Stanley in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Morgan Stanley's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Morgan Stanley options trading.

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When determining whether Morgan Stanley is a strong investment it is important to analyze Morgan Stanley's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Morgan Stanley's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Morgan Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Morgan Stanley to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Morgan Stock please use our How to Invest in Morgan Stanley guide.
You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.

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Is Morgan Stanley's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Morgan Stanley. If investors know Morgan will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Morgan Stanley listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.33)
Dividend Share
3.325
Earnings Share
5.18
Revenue Per Share
32.931
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.018
The market value of Morgan Stanley is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Morgan that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Morgan Stanley's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Morgan Stanley's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Morgan Stanley's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Morgan Stanley's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Morgan Stanley's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Morgan Stanley is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Morgan Stanley's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.