Meritage Homes 4 Period Moving Average

MTH -- USA Stock  

Earnings Call : Next Week

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Meritage Homes historic prices and determine the direction of Meritage Homes Corporation future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Meritage Homes historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Meritage Homes Corporation systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Meritage Homes fundamentals over time. Please see also Historical Fundamental Analysis of Meritage Homes to cross-verify your projections.
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A four-period moving average forecast model for Meritage Homes Corporation is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Meritage Homes Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 70.9875

Meritage Homes Prediction Pattern

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Meritage Homes Forecasted Value

October 13, 2019
70.76
Market Value
70.99
Expected Value
78.93
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria112.2515
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.7401
MADMean absolute deviation1.2379
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0188
SAESum of the absolute errors70.56
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Meritage Homes. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Meritage Homes Corporation and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Volatility Measures

Meritage Homes Risk Indicators

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