Meritage Homes 8 Period Moving Average

MTH -- USA Stock  

Earnings Report: January 29, 2020  

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Meritage Homes historic prices and determine the direction of Meritage Homes Corporation future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Meritage Homes historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Meritage Homes Corporation systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Meritage Homes fundamentals over time. Please see also Historical Fundamental Analysis of Meritage Homes to cross-verify your projections.
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An 8-period moving average forecast model for Meritage Homes is based on an artificially constructed time series of Meritage Homes daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Meritage Homes Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 73.975

Meritage Homes Prediction Pattern

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Meritage Homes Forecasted Value

October 23, 2019
74.38
Market Value
73.97
Expected Value
78.18
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria104.2628
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.9726
MADMean absolute deviation1.2577
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0182
SAESum of the absolute errors66.66
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Meritage Homes Corporation 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Volatility Measures

Meritage Homes Risk Indicators

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