NBT Bancorp Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NBTB Stock | USD 33.29 0.27 0.82% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NBT Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 33.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.00. NBT Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast NBT Bancorp stock prices and determine the direction of NBT Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of NBT Bancorp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although NBT Bancorp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of NBT Bancorp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of NBT Bancorp fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NBT Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. NBT |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 NBT Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast NBT Bancorp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in NBT Bancorp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for NBT Bancorp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current NBT Bancorp's open interest, investors have to compare it to NBT Bancorp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of NBT Bancorp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in NBT. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in NBT Bancorp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the NBT Bancorp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets NBT Bancorp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
NBT Bancorp simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for NBT Bancorp are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as NBT Bancorp prices get older. NBT Bancorp Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NBT Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 33.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50, mean absolute percentage error of 0.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NBT Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NBT Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NBT Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest NBT Bancorp | NBT Bancorp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
NBT Bancorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting NBT Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NBT Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.29 and 35.29, respectively. We have considered NBT Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NBT Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NBT Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.5095 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0713 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0144 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 30.0 |
Predictive Modules for NBT Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NBT Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NBT Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for NBT Bancorp
For every potential investor in NBT, whether a beginner or expert, NBT Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NBT Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NBT. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NBT Bancorp's price trends.NBT Bancorp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NBT Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NBT Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NBT Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NBT Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of NBT Bancorp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of NBT Bancorp's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
NBT Bancorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NBT Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NBT Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NBT Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NBT Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
NBT Bancorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of NBT Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NBT Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nbt stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.02 | |||
| Variance | 4.1 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
NBT Bancorp Investors Sentiment
The influence of NBT Bancorp's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in NBT. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to NBT Bancorp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in NBT. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding NBT can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around NBT Bancorp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
NBT Bancorp's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for NBT Bancorp's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average NBT Bancorp's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on NBT Bancorp.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards NBT Bancorp in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, NBT Bancorp's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from NBT Bancorp options trading.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NBT Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade NBT Stock refer to our How to Trade NBT Stock guide.You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
Complementary Tools for NBT Stock analysis
When running NBT Bancorp's price analysis, check to measure NBT Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NBT Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of NBT Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NBT Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NBT Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NBT Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Commodity Channel Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum | |
| Portfolio Dashboard Portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments | |
| Portfolio Suggestion Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios | |
| Headlines Timeline Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity | |
| Stock Tickers Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites | |
| Performance Analysis Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation | |
| Earnings Calls Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges | |
| Premium Stories Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope | |
| Balance Of Power Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios | |
| Price Exposure Probability Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets | |
| Portfolio Center All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios | |
| Money Flow Index Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators |
Is NBT Bancorp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NBT Bancorp. If investors know NBT will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NBT Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.24) | Dividend Share 1.24 | Earnings Share 2.65 | Revenue Per Share 11.013 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.013 |
The market value of NBT Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NBT that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NBT Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NBT Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NBT Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NBT Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NBT Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NBT Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NBT Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.