Netflix Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

NFLX Stock  USD 607.33  6.20  1.01%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Netflix on the next trading day is expected to be 609.09 with a mean absolute deviation of  7.34  and the sum of the absolute errors of 440.29. Netflix Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Netflix stock prices and determine the direction of Netflix's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Netflix's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Netflix's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Netflix's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Netflix fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Netflix to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Netflix Stock please use our How to Invest in Netflix guide.
  
At this time, Netflix's Inventory Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Payables Turnover is likely to rise to 27.70 in 2024, whereas Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to drop 19.50 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to rise to about 467.9 M in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to rise to about 5.4 B in 2024.
Most investors in Netflix cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Netflix's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Netflix's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Netflix works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Netflix Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Netflix on the next trading day is expected to be 609.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.34, mean absolute percentage error of 111.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 440.29.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Netflix Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Netflix's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Netflix Stock Forecast Pattern

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Netflix Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Netflix's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Netflix's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 607.12 and 611.06, respectively. We have considered Netflix's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
607.33
607.12
Downside
609.09
Expected Value
611.06
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Netflix stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Netflix stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.5245
MADMean absolute deviation7.3382
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0129
SAESum of the absolute errors440.29
When Netflix prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Netflix trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Netflix observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Netflix

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Netflix. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Netflix's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
605.30607.33609.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
546.60670.60672.63
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
588.88611.20633.53
Details
48 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
394.92433.98481.72
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Netflix. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Netflix's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Netflix's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Netflix.

Other Forecasting Options for Netflix

For every potential investor in Netflix, whether a beginner or expert, Netflix's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Netflix Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Netflix. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Netflix's price trends.

Netflix Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Netflix stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Netflix could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Netflix by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Netflix Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Netflix's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Netflix's current price.

Netflix Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Netflix stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Netflix shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Netflix stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Netflix entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Netflix Risk Indicators

The analysis of Netflix's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Netflix's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting netflix stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Netflix offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Netflix's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Netflix Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Netflix Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Netflix to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Netflix Stock please use our How to Invest in Netflix guide.
You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..

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When running Netflix's price analysis, check to measure Netflix's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Netflix is operating at the current time. Most of Netflix's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Netflix's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Netflix's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Netflix to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Netflix's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Netflix. If investors know Netflix will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Netflix listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
16.252
Earnings Share
12.02
Revenue Per Share
76.371
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.125
Return On Assets
0.0893
The market value of Netflix is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Netflix that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Netflix's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Netflix's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Netflix's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Netflix's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Netflix's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Netflix is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Netflix's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.