Netflix Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| NFLX Stock | USD 554.60 0.44 0.08% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Netflix on the next trading day is expected to be 623.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 14.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 873.21. Netflix Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Netflix stock prices and determine the direction of Netflix's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Netflix's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Netflix's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Netflix's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Netflix fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Netflix to cross-verify your projections. Netflix |
Most investors in Netflix cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Netflix's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Netflix's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Netflix price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X. Netflix Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Netflix on the next trading day is expected to be 623.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 14.08, mean absolute percentage error of 398.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 873.21.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Netflix Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Netflix's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Netflix Stock Forecast Pattern
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Netflix Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Netflix's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Netflix's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 622.01 and 625.89, respectively. We have considered Netflix's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Netflix stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Netflix stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 125.9357 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 14.084 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0239 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 873.2072 |
Predictive Modules for Netflix
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Netflix. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Netflix's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Netflix
For every potential investor in Netflix, whether a beginner or expert, Netflix's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Netflix Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Netflix. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Netflix's price trends.Netflix Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Netflix stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Netflix could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Netflix by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Netflix Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Netflix's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Netflix's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Netflix Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Netflix stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Netflix shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Netflix stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Netflix entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 255458.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.03) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 550.31 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 551.74 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 4.07 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.44) |
Netflix Risk Indicators
The analysis of Netflix's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Netflix's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting netflix stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Variance | 5.28 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.5 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.77) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Netflix Investors Sentiment
The influence of Netflix's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Netflix. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Netflix's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Netflix. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Netflix can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Netflix. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Netflix's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Netflix's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Netflix's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Netflix.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Netflix in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Netflix's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Netflix options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Netflix to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Netflix Stock please use our How to Invest in Netflix guide.You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Complementary Tools for Netflix Stock analysis
When running Netflix's price analysis, check to measure Netflix's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Netflix is operating at the current time. Most of Netflix's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Netflix's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Netflix's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Netflix to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Netflix's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Netflix. If investors know Netflix will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Netflix listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.833 | Earnings Share 12.05 | Revenue Per Share 79.703 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.148 | Return On Assets 0.1001 |
The market value of Netflix is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Netflix that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Netflix's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Netflix's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Netflix's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Netflix's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Netflix's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Netflix is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Netflix's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.