Realty Income Double Exponential Smoothing

O -- USA Stock  

Fiscal Quarter End: December 31, 2019  

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Realty Income historic prices and determine the direction of Realty Income Corporation future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Realty Income historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Realty Income Corporation systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Realty Income fundamentals over time. Additionally take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Realty Income to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Realty Income works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Realty Income Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 72.252298

Realty Income Prediction Pattern

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Realty Income Forecasted Value

Market Value
72.50
December 15, 2019
72.25
Expected Value
75.02
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1067
MADMean absolute deviation0.5505
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0071
SAESum of the absolute errors32.4781
When Realty Income Corporation prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Realty Income Corporation trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Realty Income observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Volatility Measures

Realty Income Risk Indicators

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