Realty Income Naive Prediction

O -- USA Stock  

Sell-off Trend

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Realty Income historic prices and determine the direction of Realty Income Corporation future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Realty Income historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Realty Income Corporation systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Realty Income fundamentals over time. Additionally take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Realty Income to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A naive forecasting model for Realty Income is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Realty Income Corporation value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Realty Income Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 72.743896

Realty Income Prediction Pattern

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Realty Income Forecasted Value

Market Value
74.58
December 14, 2019
72.74
Expected Value
75.53
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria119.8548
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.7441
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0096
SAESum of the absolute errors46.135
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Realty Income Corporation. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

Realty Income Risk Indicators

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