Ormat Technologies Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ORA Stock | 24,450 250.00 1.01% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ormat Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 24,420 with a mean absolute deviation of 361.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21,336. Ormat Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ormat Technologies stock prices and determine the direction of Ormat Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ormat Technologies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ormat Technologies to cross-verify your projections. Ormat |
Most investors in Ormat Technologies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Ormat Technologies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Ormat Technologies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Ormat Technologies - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Ormat Technologies prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Ormat Technologies price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Ormat Technologies. Ormat Technologies Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ormat Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 24,420 with a mean absolute deviation of 361.63, mean absolute percentage error of 221,777, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21,336.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ormat Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ormat Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ormat Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
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Ormat Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ormat Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ormat Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24,418 and 24,422, respectively. We have considered Ormat Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ormat Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ormat Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 13.5139 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 361.6336 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.015 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21336.38 |
Predictive Modules for Ormat Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ormat Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ormat Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Ormat Technologies
For every potential investor in Ormat, whether a beginner or expert, Ormat Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ormat Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ormat. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ormat Technologies' price trends.Ormat Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ormat Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ormat Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ormat Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ormat Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ormat Technologies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ormat Technologies' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ormat Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ormat Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ormat Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ormat Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ormat Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0254 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.40) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 24525.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 24500.0 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 630.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (200.00) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (250.00) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 54.53 |
Ormat Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ormat Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ormat Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ormat stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.97 | |||
| Variance | 3.89 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.85 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.3 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.31) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ormat Technologies to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Ormat Stock refer to our How to Trade Ormat Stock guide.Note that the Ormat Technologies information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ormat Technologies' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for Ormat Stock analysis
When running Ormat Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Ormat Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ormat Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Ormat Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ormat Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ormat Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ormat Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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