CAC ALL Naive Prediction

PAX -- France Index  

 7,093  12.68  0.18%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast CAC ALL historic prices and determine the direction of CAC ALL SHARES future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of CAC ALL historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Additionally take a look at fundamental analysis of CAC ALL to check your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A naive forecasting model for CAC ALL is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of CAC ALL SHARES value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of CAC ALL SHARES on the next trading day is expected to be 7147.290195

CAC ALL SHARES Prediction Pattern

CAC ALL Forecasted Value

November 19, 2019
Market Value
Expected Value

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria126.7161
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation52.5443
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0078
SAESum of the absolute errors3205.2024
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of CAC ALL SHARES. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

CAC ALL Risk Indicators