Prudential Jennison Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| PWJZX Fund | USD 29.46 0.29 0.97% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Prudential Jennison International on the next trading day is expected to be 29.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.60. Prudential Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Prudential Jennison stock prices and determine the direction of Prudential Jennison International's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Prudential Jennison's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Prudential Jennison to cross-verify your projections. Prudential |
Most investors in Prudential Jennison cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Prudential Jennison's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Prudential Jennison's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Prudential Jennison works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Prudential Jennison Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Prudential Jennison International on the next trading day is expected to be 29.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.60.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Prudential Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Prudential Jennison's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Prudential Jennison Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Prudential Jennison Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Prudential Jennison's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Prudential Jennison's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.36 and 30.42, respectively. We have considered Prudential Jennison's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Prudential Jennison mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Prudential Jennison mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0706 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2305 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0075 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.5977 |
Predictive Modules for Prudential Jennison
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Prudential Jennison. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Prudential Jennison's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Prudential Jennison
For every potential investor in Prudential, whether a beginner or expert, Prudential Jennison's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Prudential Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Prudential. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Prudential Jennison's price trends.Prudential Jennison Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Prudential Jennison mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Prudential Jennison could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Prudential Jennison by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Prudential Jennison Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Prudential Jennison's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Prudential Jennison's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Prudential Jennison Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Prudential Jennison mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Prudential Jennison shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Prudential Jennison mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Prudential Jennison International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 29.46 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 29.46 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.14) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.29) |
Prudential Jennison Risk Indicators
The analysis of Prudential Jennison's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Prudential Jennison's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting prudential mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7812 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.811 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Variance | 1.08 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9937 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6577 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.90) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Prudential Jennison in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Prudential Jennison's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Prudential Jennison options trading.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Prudential Jennison to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Prudential Jennison information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Prudential Jennison's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.