American Funds Triple Exponential Smoothing

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RERAX -- USA Fund  

USD 53.54  0.44  0.83%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast American Funds historic prices and determine the direction of American Funds EuroPacific Gr future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of American Funds historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Additionally take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Funds to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Triple exponential smoothing for American Funds - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When American Funds prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in American Funds price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of American Funds EuroP.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of American Funds EuroPacific Gr on the next trading day is expected to be 53.420151

American Funds EuroP Prediction Pattern

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American Funds Forecasted Value

Market Value
January 24, 2020
Expected Value

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0639
MADMean absolute deviation0.2793
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0053
SAESum of the absolute errors16.48
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past American Funds observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older American Funds EuroPacific Gr observations.

Volatility Measures

American Funds Risk Indicators