SA Worldwide Naive Prediction

SAWMX -- USA Fund  

USD 11.12  0.03  0.27%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast SA Worldwide historic prices and determine the direction of SA Worldwide Moderate Growth Fu future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of SA Worldwide historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Also please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of SA Worldwide to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A naive forecasting model for SA Worldwide is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of SA Worldwide Moderate Growth Fu value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of SA Worldwide Moderate Growth Fu on the next trading day is expected to be 11.058447

SA Worldwide Moderate Prediction Pattern

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SA Worldwide Forecasted Value

November 21, 2019
11.12
Market Value
11.06
Expected Value
12.40
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria112.5822
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0521
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0048
SAESum of the absolute errors3.1774
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of SA Worldwide Moderate Growth Fu. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

SA Worldwide Risk Indicators

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